Emerging economies

Most of the growth for the cosmetics industry in the coming years should come from emerging markets where the middle class rises in importance. According to Euromonitor, China, India and Russia will be among the world’s five largest economies by 2020. China and Russia displacing USA and Germany respectively. Euromonitor International predicts that China will become the world’s largest economy in PPP terms in 2017 and will account for 19.0% of global GDP in PPP terms by 2020. However, China is also facing big challenges, including rising labour costs, pollution, a potential real estate bubble and rapid ageing. The market research firm predicts that China’s working age population (aged 15-64) will decline from 2014. Furthermore, Russia should overtake Germany as the world’s fifth largest economy in 2016, driven by its energy sector. The country also offers potential in its rapidly expanding consumer market, which Euromonitor forecasts will be the ninth largest globally in real terms in 2020. However, the lack of economic diversification and modernisation, as well as declining working-age population, remain key long-term challenges.